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09/21/13 8:00am

SUFFOLK COUNTY HISTORICAL SOCIETY COURTESY PHOTO | Downed trees on Riverhead’s Griffing Avenue, looking north, after the Hurricane of 1938.

Sept. 21, 1938, was shaping up to be just another gray day on the North Fork for 5-year-old Verna Campbell.

Her Wednesday morning at the newly built Pulaski Street School went along like any other day, from what she can remember.

In Riverhead and across the Northeast, no one appeared to be fazed by reports of a hurricane speeding up the East Coast. School children like Ms. Campbell and then-high school junior Lewis Tomaszewski were sent to school as usual, because experts believed the storm had missed the southern states and was headed out to sea.

That morning’s New York Times editorial only boosted people’s confidence. The editorial hailed the U.S. Weather Bureau’s “unparalleled warning system” for alerting the public to inclement weather. The Times’ opinion piece focused on the hurricane that was expected to slam Florida, but turned eastward, avoiding landfall.

That same day, the bureau’s advisory out of Washington, D.C., made no reference to the hurricane, which even the most seasoned meteorologists assumed was destined to fizzle out in the Atlantic.

But by mid-afternoon, the wind had begun to pick up.

Hurricane outlook: When will the next big storm hit?

Mr. Tomaszewski remembers waiting for school buses to arrive to take the students home, watching through the windows as the hurricane struck.

“You could see these trees falling,” Mr. Tomaszewski — now 92 years old — told the News-Review.

In her kindergarten class, Verna Campbell and her classmates watched as the storm whipped through the nearby cemetery.

Video: Relive the Hurricane of ’38

“I was so frightened,” Ms. Campbell recalled. “The sky was gray and eerie and very terrifying. I wanted so desperately to go home.”

Not long after that, the hurricane that would become known as the “Long Island Express” unleashed its fury on the East End.

SUFFOLK COUNTY HISTORICAL SOCIETY COURTESY PHOTO | After the storm, looking south on Roanoke Avenue, near First Street in downtown Riverhead. Note the sign for the King Kullen market (right), which was located in the ‘Auditorium’ shopping complex.

Seventy-five years later, that hurricane — known officially as the New England Hurricane of 1938 — has gone down in the record books as one of the most powerful and costliest storms ever to hit the region.

It slammed into the Northeast as a Category 3 hurricane with wind speeds gusting to more than 120 mph, toppling nearly two billion trees, according to National Weather Service estimates. A wall of water estimated at 17 feet crashed over Long Island. The storm made landfall on the South Shore sometime between 2:10 and 2:45 p.m. As quickly as the storm struck, it was gone, barreling across Long Island Sound into Connecticut, Rhode Island and Massachusetts within hours.

As many as 700 people were killed.

Related: How to prepare for the next big storm

“Homes were washed away, roads were washed away, Long Island Rail Road tracks were washed out, any of the fishing industry out here out east is gone, the apple crop was destroyed, a lot of livestock and farming was destroyed,” National Weather Service meteorologist David Stark said in a recent interview. “This was a very powerful, very destructive storm no matter how you look at it.”

Speed was partly to blame for the devastation, Mr. Stark said.

The hurricane traveled as fast as 60 mph up the coast — faster than any other storm in recorded history — after it got caught in the jet stream.

Without modern-day technology like satellites and radar, Long Island was caught off guard.

“Back then we were relying on data from ships going across the Atlantic,” Mr. Stark said. “They were thinking it was a tropical storm at that point. They didn’t really see [its] actual strength.”

Related: Pieceful Quilting, 11 months after Sandy, rebounds

Westhampton Beach bore the brunt of the hurricane’s force. The village area was flooded under eight feet of water. A movie theater filled with customers enjoying a matinee reportedly was lifted off its foundation by the storm’s waves and carried two miles out to sea, where it sank – drowning all inside.

While the damage in Riverhead was nowhere near as severe as in Westhampton Beach, the town suffered the “most savage storm in years,” according to an article in the County Review. The Peconic River overflowed its banks and tossed boats moored there — including a massive dredge — onto the shore, the article states.

More than 100 trees fell at Riverhead Cemetery and buildings like the Suffolk County Historical Society, the county courthouse, the elementary school on Roanoke Avenue and the high school on Pulaski Street were damaged, according to the article.

A group of “Riverhead lads” also managed to save the life of a woman trying to row across inundated Westhampton Beach, the newspaper reported.

In a special edition filed one week after the disaster, the County Review reported that at Old Steeple Church in Aquebogue the eponymous steeple was lost and a hole was punched through the roof. The church was left a “sorry looking spectacle,” the article states.

On Roanoke Avenue, barns, sheds and garages were blown down and some residents were still without water or electricity one week after the storm.

Along Sound Avenue, fruit was stripped from trees and the belfry and spire of Sound Avenue Hall were knocked down.

Ms. Campbell, now 80, recalled the damage she saw in her neighborhood after she returned home safely with a friend’s parent and the storm had fully passed. She was devastated to find that her favorite maple tree had been struck down by lightning. The tree had symbolized stability to her young mind, Ms. Campbell said.

It took until her teenage years for her to get over her fear of storms, she said.

Mr. Tomaszewski’s family was lucky; their Calverton farm suffered practically no damage in the hurricane.

“It was more the people by the bay. They got hit hard,” he said.

John Yakaboski, who recently turned 100, also recalled the substantial destruction the Express wreaked on the East End.

“That was a bad one,” he said in a brief interview from his Calverton home. “A couple weeks later we took a ride to Westhampton Beach; the seaweed was 20 feet high on the telephone pole.”

A private study done by a risk management company in 2008 showed the storm brought unparalleled destruction to the East End. The damage was equivalent to an F3 tornado, according to the study.

The storm caused $620 million in damage at the time, Mr. Stark said, or roughly $18 billion today. He added that if the 1938 hurricane hit today, it would cause an estimated $41 billion in damage.

The front page of The Riverhead News on Sept. 30, 1938.

Ten times more people were killed by the Long Island Express than by Sandy.

Last year’s storm brought winds near 80 mph, but Mr. Stark said Sandy’s winds stayed below hurricane force across most of Long Island.

The storm of 1938, by comparison, had sustained winds 20 to 30 mph stronger than Sandy’s most powerful gust.

And Sandy’s historic surge that swamped downtown Riverhead was still at least three feet lower than the tide brought in by the 1938 storm.

Meteorologist Stephanie Dunten at the National Weather Service station in Taunton, Mass., said that while other storms may share similar wind speed, storm surge or pressure readings, no other hurricane in the region’s recorded history has combined the different elements to create such a powerful storm.

“All the different storms have bits and pieces of it, but this one has everything,” she said. “It just baffles me.”

Weather experts say the historic nature of the 1938 hurricane’s power means few storms can match the destruction of the Long Island Express.

But storms like Sandy prove that the threat — however small — of a powerful hurricane always looms.

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09/21/13 7:59am

NOAA COURTESY PHOTO | Hurricane Ingrid, just the second hurricane of the season, swirls off the coast of Mexico last week. Though few hurricanes have formed this year, weather experts warn the season is not over yet.

No storm has hit the East End with the same power since the “Long Island Express” hurricane smashed into the area 75 years ago with wind gusts as high as 186 mph and storm tides of 12 to 15 feet.

But weather experts say it’s not a matter of if another big storm will hit our region, but when.

“It’s as close to a guarantee as a scientist is willing to admit,” said Scott Mandia, a professor of physical sciences at Suffolk County Community College.

And while 2013’s hurricane season — which began in June — has been quiet so far with no major hurricanes developing, meteorologists say the season could still produce violent storms before it ends in late November.

“We’re only at halftime in the football game,” said Dennis Feltgen, meteorologist and spokesman for National Hurricane Center in Miami, Fla.

Special Report: Remembering the ‘L.I. Express hurricane of 1938’

In May, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association predicted an “active to extremely active” season this year, with between 13 and 20 named storms with winds above 39 mph and seven to 11 hurricanes — well above the seasonal average.

Though there have been nine named tropical storms so far this year, only two hurricanes have formed, Mr. Feltgen said.

The first, Hurricane Humberto, came to life off the coast of Africa last week. A second hurricane, Ingrid, dissipated after it hit Mexico over the weekend.

“Statistically, by the time we reach [Sept. 21] we should have had at least four hurricanes and one major hurricane,” Mr. Feltgen said.

Hurricanes have been slow to form this year due to a large mass of dry, stable air sitting over the eastern Atlantic off the coast of Africa, which makes it hard for clouds to grow, he said. At least three tropical storms this year — Chantal, Dorian and Eric — began in the African tropics but were snuffed out by dry air.

The hurricane season is half over in mid-September and the peak of the season is winding down.

“But that doesn’t mean by any stretch of the imagination we can’t catch up in a hurry,” Mr. Feltgen said. Last year, Hurricane Sandy was a late-season storm that went on to cause more than $64 billion in damage and knock out power in New York City and across Long Island.

We are now in an “active hurricane cycle” that began in the mid-1990s, Mr. Feltgen said, noting that such cycles generally last 20 to 40 years.

But in the long run, experts say, the North Fork may see fewer storms than in previous years due to global warming. Mr. Mandia said models show that climate change may lead to more El Niño seasons, which cause stronger upper-level trade winds in the Atlantic that disrupt hurricane formation.

However, when hurricanes do make it to our area, he said, they will likely be stronger. Hurricanes are fueled by tropical waters and become more powerful by drawing moisture from the warm seas up into the clouds.

A warmer climate means warmer sea temperatures, Mr. Mandia said. When Hurricane Sandy chugged up the coast, the water was one degree warmer than normal because of climate change, he said.

Sandy would have caused damage across Long Island even without global warming, but Mr. Mandia said the hurricane was “definitely made worse” by the warmer water.

Rising sea levels and denser populations on the North Fork also mean storm surges will affect more people. The worst-case surge from a category 1 storm would turn Orient into an island by cutting off Route 25 near the causeway, similar to what happened during Hurricane Sandy, according to a surge inundation map by the New York State Office of Emergency Management. In a Category 2 storm, parts of Greenport would also be flooded and cut off from the rest of the town and in a Category 3 hurricane — the same category as the Long Island Express — the village would be submerged, the chart shows. Southern sections of Shelter Island would disappear under the waves while farther west, residences around Peconic Bay in Flanders, Jamesport, Aquebogue and Riverhead would be completely swamped.

“We’re only making ourselves more like sitting ducks if we continue to warm the planet and cause seawaters to rise,” Mr. Mandia said.

He advised residents to be prepared to live without modern conveniences like power or gas for a week or two in the event of a powerful storm.

While those inland will not be affected by the higher storm tides, those who enjoy life along the coast will suffer damage when the next Long Island Express hits.

“I take my kids to the beach and I see the mansions on Dune Road,” Mr. Mandia said. “I look at all those and I think, ‘Borrowed time, honey. Borrowed time.’ ”

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09/21/13 7:57am

SUFFOLK COUNTY HISTORICAL SOCIETY PHOTO | A houseboat sinks near S.T. Preston’s dock in Greenport during the ‘Long Island Express’ hurricane of 1938.

For as long as he can remember, John Holzapfel of Orient has been interested in the New England Hurricane of 1938 and its impact on the North Fork.

A retired Shoreham-Wading River High School science teacher with a master’s in marine studies, the self-proclaimed history buff has done his fair share of research on the “Long Island Express.”

His fascination with the storm heightened in the wake of Hurricane Sandy, which devastated the region last year.

Special Report: Remembering the ‘L.I. Express hurricane of 1938’

Now, 75 years after that early storm struck, Mr. Holzapfel is preparing to present “The Hurricane of ’38,” a talk co-sponsored by the Oysterponds Historical Society and Peconic Landing, on Saturday, Sept. 21. The presentation will start at 4 p.m. at Peconic Landing’s community center in Greenport.

The program will begin with a brief description of how hurricanes form, followed by a discussion of the special conditions that made the 1938 storm so disastrous for the East End.

The highlight, Mr. Holzapfel said, will be firsthand recollections of the storm. He’ll also show photos of damage sustained from Orient to Greenport.

To Mr. Holzapfel, one of the most noteworthy facts about the hurricane was that locals didn’t see it coming.

“They didn’t expect it,” he said. “It should have gone out to sea.”

The talk is free of charge and no registration is necessary. For more information, visit oysterpondshistoricalsociety.org or call 323-2480.

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